Ten days and 65 games into the new NHL season, the sample is still small. Even so, some early patterns are taking shape across the league, with the New York Rangers on the rise, the Philadelphia Flyers heading the wrong way, and a couple of goaltending storylines already drawing attention.
Winnipeg Making It Work in Net
The Winnipeg Jets have long been known for strong save percentages, so good numbers from their goalies would not normally surprise anyone. This season is different because Connor Hellebuyck is not playing. In his absence, Stuart Skinner and Clay Stevenson have stabilized the position, and the Jets have opened with a 3-0-1 record. Whether the pair can keep it up over a full schedule is an open question, but the start has eased some of the worry that surrounded the team’s goaltending situation.
Chicago Struggling Again
At the other end of the spectrum are the Chicago Blackhawks, who sit at 1-4-0 after a tough loss to the New York Islanders on Thursday night. Their underlying numbers are a concern, too. They have controlled only about 38 percent of the expected goals in their games, a figure that points to a team being outplayed on the quality of chances and not merely suffering from bad luck. Chicago has been near the bottom of the standings for some time, which raises a fair question about whether the club can really be said to be trending down. Based on the early evidence, optimism in the city is hard to come by.
Rangers Up, Flyers Down
The Athletic’s early survey of the league also lists the Rangers among the teams trending upward and the Flyers among those heading in the opposite direction. These are the sort of early-season swings that can change quickly, but they offer a first read on how the standings may begin to separate.
Why Small Samples Still Matter
The writer behind the analysis, James Mirtle, acknowledges that this is not a huge sample size. A handful of games can be distorted by hot goaltending, special teams streaks or a lopsided schedule. Still, enough has happened to justify a first look for trends. Teams that are posting strong possession and chance-quality numbers tend to be more trustworthy early indicators than those relying on unsustainable results. By that measure, Chicago’s expected goals share is the kind of figure that suggests more trouble ahead unless the club improves its play at both ends of the ice.
For the Jets, the focus will be on whether their depth in goal can hold up as opponents adjust and the schedule gets busier. Hellebuyck’s absence was expected to be a major blow, so each successful start from Skinner and Stevenson adds to a surprising early story.
With many of the 32 teams having played only four or five games, there is plenty of time for the picture to shift. For now, Winnipeg looks sturdy, Chicago looks lost, and the early separation in the standings is giving fans and analysts their first real talking points of the season.
Source: The Athletic (The New York Times)
