With the midterm elections drawing closer, fresh polling is giving Republicans reason to worry. President Donald Trump’s job approval is hovering close to the lowest levels of his second term. Surveys also suggest Democrats may have an advantage in voter enthusiasm.
A tougher climate for the party in power
Polling averages are somewhat more favorable to the president than a few of the most recent individual surveys. Even so, they point to the same basic problem for the GOP. The party is trying to keep control of Congress at a time when more Americans say they disapprove of Trump’s performance than approve of it.
Midterm elections often turn into a referendum on the sitting president. A president’s standing with the public can shape how motivated each party’s voters are to turn out, and that in turn affects the fight for House and Senate seats.
The 2018 comparison
Pollster David Paleologos, who directs Suffolk University’s Political Research Center, offered a historical yardstick. In October 2018, during Trump’s first term, his approval rating stood at 44%. Republicans still lost 41 House seats that November. Paleologos noted that the president’s current approval is considerably lower than it was at that point, which suggests the party faces a steeper climb this time.
Polling is not a prediction, and conditions can shift before ballots are cast. Still, the 2018 result shows that a middling approval number can coincide with heavy losses for the president’s party. Analysts are likely to keep that parallel in mind as the campaign enters its final weeks.
Democrats show a turnout edge
The surveys also indicate that Democrats have an advantage in turnout enthusiasm. Strong turnout from a party’s base can matter as much as persuasion in a midterm, when participation is usually lower than in a presidential year. A motivated opposition combined with a president whose approval is under water is the kind of environment that has historically helped the party out of power.
Democrats are also working to broaden their coalition. NPR has reported that the party is trying to rebuild trust with Latino voters, partly by turning to content creators who can reach audiences that traditional campaign outreach does not. The effort reflects how much both parties are leaning on nontraditional channels as they try to mobilize voters before Election Day.
What to watch next
Several questions will shape the final stretch of the campaign:
- Whether Trump’s approval rating recovers, stays flat or slips further.
- Whether Democrats’ apparent enthusiasm advantage holds up when it comes to actual voting.
- Whether Republican candidates in competitive districts try to distance themselves from the national mood or lean into the president’s agenda.
- How effective new outreach to Latino and other key voting blocs proves to be.
For now, the numbers describe a difficult political backdrop for the party in power. With Congress at stake, Republicans must find a way to energize their supporters while contending with a president whose public standing remains weaker than it was at the same point in 2018.
Source: USA Today, with additional reporting from NPR
